Matchup Status (Week 13)
Games Completed (4)
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | ✓ 29.4 | 18.1 | 18.4 | +11.0 |
| Emanuel Wilson (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 1.4 | 5.6 | 8.9 | -7.5 |
| Jameson Williams (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 26.9 | 11.8 | 15.1 | +11.8 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | ✓ 25.8 | 15.7 | 18.2 | +7.6 |
Games Pending (12)
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 17.2 | 20.5 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 11.8 | 12.0 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | RB | 9.9 | 8.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 21.9 | 24.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 8.7 | 11.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | RB/WR/TE | 13.2 | 13.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.5 | 9.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 7.5 | 10.0 |
| Evan Engram (bench) | TE | BE | 8.1 | 7.5 |
| Keenan Allen (bench) | WR | BE | 12.0 | 10.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 13.7 | 14.0 |
| Omarion Hampton (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
Opponent: 4th and pinches
Opponent Games Completed (5)
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | RB | ✓ 11.6 | 20.9 | -9.3 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | WR | ✓ 2.8 | 13.5 | -10.7 |
| Harrison Butker | K | K | ✓ 4.0 | 8.7 | -4.7 |
| Kareem Hunt (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 9.0 | 9.3 | -0.3 |
| Romeo Doubs (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 12.0 | 11.0 | +1.0 |
Opponent Games Pending (11)
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB | 15.5 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | RB | 15.2 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | WR | 11.5 |
| Trey McBride | TE | TE | 17.3 |
| Devin Neal | RB | RB/WR/TE | 11.1 |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 7.2 |
| DK Metcalf (bench) | WR | BE | 13.3 |
| Jordan Addison (bench) | WR | BE | 8.6 |
| Mason Taylor (bench) | TE | BE | 8.5 |
| Quentin Johnston (bench) | WR | BE | 10.0 |
| Shedeur Sanders (bench) | QB | BE | 11.8 |
Executive Summary
Week 13 must-win matchup sees us leading 29.4 to 18.4 after Rashee Rice's dominant Friday performance. While Thursday's bench booms from Jordan Love (25.8) and Jameson Williams (26.9) sting, Sunday presents excellent opportunities with JSN as consensus WR1 against vulnerable Minnesota, Jacoby Brissett facing a porous Tampa Bay pass defense, and the Rams D/ST primed for double-digit points against woeful Carolina. Key injury concerns: Bucky Irving (first game back since Week 4, limited workload expected) and MHJ (first game after appendicitis surgery). With our 6-6 record, this is a must-win for playoff positioning.
Key Insights
- Rashee Rice BOOMED Friday with 29.4 fantasy points (started) - excellent decision
- Jordan Love (25.8) and Jameson Williams (26.9) boomed on BENCH Thursday - painful hindsight
- JSN is WR1 ECR with 7-game 20+ pt streak, faces MIN (28th vs WR, allowed 37.1 to JSN earlier)
- Jacoby Brissett is QB6-10, has scored 18+ pts in all 6 starts, TB allows 5th most QB FPTS
- Bucky Irving EXPECTED TO PLAY per Schefter but first game back since Week 4 - 13-15 touches
- MHJ EXPECTED TO PLAY after appendicitis surgery - limited practice, rust concern
- Rams D/ST ranked D/ST3-5, #1 defensive EPA, face weak CAR (Bryce Young <200yds in 7/9 games)
- Juwan Johnson TE6-11 ECR, MIA 5th most to TE, Kamara OUT boosts target share
Recommended Starting Lineup
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| RB | Bucky Irving | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | BUST | LOW |
| RB | Tyjae Spears | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| WR | Rashee Rice | LV | 18.1 | 18.4 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB/WR/TE | Tetairoa McMillan | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| K | Jason Myers | MIN | 8.5 | 9.0 | MODERATE | LOW |
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | CAR | 7.5 | 10.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
Lineup Decisions
QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love - Love already played Thursday (25.8 pts on bench). Brissett has favorable TB matchup, 18+ pts all 6 starts.
RB1: Start Bucky Irving over Emanuel Wilson - Irving has higher ceiling despite injury risk. Wilson already played (1.4 pts bench).
RB2: Start Tyjae Spears over Omarion Hampton - Spears has receiving floor (3+ catches in 5 straight). Hampton on IR.
WR1: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over All - WR1 ECR, 7-game 20+ streak, MIN 28th vs WR. Must start.
WR2: Start Rashee Rice over All - Already played Friday - 29.4 points. Game completed.
FLEX: Start Tetairoa McMillan over Marvin Harrison Jr. - MHJ QUESTIONABLE first game back from surgery. McMillan clear CAR #1, safer floor.
TE: Start Juwan Johnson over Evan Engram - Johnson TE6-11 ECR, MIA 4th most to TE, Kamara OUT. Engram low floor with DEN.
D/ST: Start Rams D/ST over None - #1 D/ST last week, #5 ECR, face weak CAR. Double-digit potential.
XGBoost Boom/Bust Analysis
| Player | Pos | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 50.0% | 36.0% | 14.0% | MEDIUM |
| Jordan Love | QB | 28.4% | 50.7% | 20.9% | MEDIUM |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 25.7% | 56.1% | 18.2% | MEDIUM |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 25.3% | 50.4% | 24.3% | MEDIUM |
| Evan Engram | TE | 24.6% | 49.7% | 25.6% | MEDIUM |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 21.3% | 60.6% | 18.1% | MEDIUM |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 21.1% | 58.8% | 20.1% | MEDIUM |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 21.0% | 53.9% | 25.0% | MEDIUM |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 19.5% | 37.1% | 43.3% | MEDIUM |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 18.3% | 48.9% | 32.7% | MEDIUM |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 13.3% | 53.7% | 33.0% | MEDIUM |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 13.2% | 59.8% | 26.9% | MEDIUM |
| Jason Myers | K | 12.1% | 46.1% | 41.8% | MEDIUM |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | 10.7% | 55.1% | 34.2% | MEDIUM |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 9.5% | 36.0% | 54.5% | MEDIUM |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 8.3% | 37.3% | 54.4% | MEDIUM |
Jordan Love (GB vs DET)
Projections: ESPN 15.7 | LLM 18.2 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
[Source: Pro Football Network]
Context: O/U: 45.0 | Def Rank: 16
XGBoost: Boom 28% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)
Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs TB)
Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 20.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: QB6-10 ECR, 18+ pts all 6 starts, TB 27th pass D (243.5 yds allowed). MHJ expected back spreads coverage.
Context: O/U: 45.5 | Def Rank: 27
XGBoost: Boom 20% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)
Bucky Irving (TB vs ARI)
Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 12.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: XGB: 10% boom, 55% bust - agrees with BUST. First game since Week 4 (shoulder subluxation). Coach: won't overdo it, 13-15 touches. 12.0 within BUST range.
[Source: Pro Football Network]
Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 17
XGBoost: Boom 10% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)
Tyjae Spears (TEN vs JAX)
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: RB36 ECR, out-touched by Pollard 15-7 last week. JAX 7th-fewest rushing yds allowed since Week 8. PPR floor from 3+ catches.
[Source: Pro Football Network]
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 7
XGBoost: Boom 13% | Bust 33% (MEDIUM)
Omarion Hampton (LAC vs LV)
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: ON IR - not playing
Context: O/U: 41.0 | Def Rank: 16
XGBoost: Boom 8% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)
Emanuel Wilson (GB vs DET)
Projections: ESPN 5.6 | LLM 8.9 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
Context: O/U: 45.0 | Def Rank: 16
XGBoost: Boom 11% | Bust 34% (MEDIUM)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs MIN)
Projections: ESPN 21.9 | LLM 24.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: XGB: 50% boom, 14% bust - MEDIUM confidence. LLM selects MODERATE despite high boom prob: conservative estimate within MODERATE [18-28] given regression-to-mean likelihood. WR1 ECR, 7-game 20+ streak, MIN 28th vs WR.
[Source: Pro Football Network]
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 28
XGBoost: Boom 50% | Bust 14% (MEDIUM)
Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs LAR)
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: WR13 ECR, clear CAR #1 (24.5% target share). Career game last week (130yds/2TD). LAR stout pass D (only 3 WR TDs since Week 5).
[Source: Pro Football Network]
Context: O/U: 46.5 | Def Rank: 12
XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs TB)
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: EXPECTED TO PLAY per ESPN after appendicitis surgery Nov 10. Limited practice all week. Rust concern but TB 18th vs WR.
[Source: Arizona Cardinals Official]
Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 18
XGBoost: Boom 26% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)
Rashee Rice (KC vs LV)
Projections: ESPN 18.1 | LLM 18.4 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
Context: O/U: 45.0 | Def Rank: 16
XGBoost: Boom 13% | Bust 27% (MEDIUM)
Jameson Williams (DET vs GB)
Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 15.1 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
Context: O/U: 45.0 | Def Rank: 16
XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)
Keenan Allen (LAC vs LV)
Projections: ESPN 12.0 | LLM 10.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: WR40 ECR, 10.8 PPR or less in 4 of last 5. LV zone-heavy helps his skillset. Bench behind JSN/McMillan.
Context: O/U: 41.0 | Def Rank: 18
XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)
Evan Engram (DEN vs WSH)
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 7.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: TE21 ECR, only 3.2 catches/game with DEN. WSH 24th vs TE provides favorable matchup but low floor.
Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 24
XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)
Juwan Johnson (NO vs MIA)
Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: TE6-11 ECR, MIA 5th most pts allowed to TE, Kamara OUT boosts targets. TE1 in 3 Shough starts (TE12, TE3, TE9).
[Source: Pro Football Network]
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 5
XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 25% (MEDIUM)
Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs DET
Projections: ESPN 15.7 | LLM 18.2
XGBoost: Boom 28% | Bust 21%
Notes: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
[Source: Pro Football Network]
Evan Engram (TE) - DEN vs WSH
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 7.5
XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 26%
Notes: TE21 ECR, only 3.2 catches/game with DEN. WSH 24th vs TE provides favorable matchup but low floor.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs TB
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM 14.0
XGBoost: Boom 26% | Bust 18%
Notes: EXPECTED TO PLAY per ESPN after appendicitis surgery Nov 10. Limited practice all week. Rust concern but TB 18th vs WR.
[Source: Arizona Cardinals Official]
Omarion Hampton (RB) - LAC vs LV
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
XGBoost: Boom 8% | Bust 54%
Notes: ON IR - not playing
Jameson Williams (WR) - DET vs GB
Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 15.1
XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 20%
Notes: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
Emanuel Wilson (RB) - GB vs DET
Projections: ESPN 5.6 | LLM 8.9
XGBoost: Boom 11% | Bust 34%
Notes: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
Keenan Allen (WR) - LAC vs LV
Projections: ESPN 12.0 | LLM 10.0
XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 24%
Notes: WR40 ECR, 10.8 PPR or less in 4 of last 5. LV zone-heavy helps his skillset. Bench behind JSN/McMillan.
Monte Carlo Projection Report
Matchup Summary
Win Probability
Margin Distribution (80% Range)
Floor: -31.7 pts | Median: +9.4 pts | Ceiling: +49.4 pts
Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis
When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)
| Position | Injured Starter | Status | ESPN Proj | Replacement | Repl ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Baker Mayfield | QUESTIONABLE | 16.7 | Shedeur Sanders | 5.9 |
Opponent Lineup Scenarios
Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.
| Scenario | Probability | Opp Total EV | Win Prob | Expected Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All injured starters play | 85.0% | 124.7 | 62.1% | +9.4 |
| All injured starters out | 15.0% | 117.6 | 71.1% | +16.3 |
My Team
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
Starters
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 20.5 | 17.4-27.4 | ↑15+: 90% | ↓5-: 10% |  |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 12.0 | 0.0-25.5 | ↑15+: 50% | ↓5-: 16% |  |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 0.7-12.4 | ↑15+: 3% | ↓5-: 28% |  |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | LOW | 24.0 | 20.7-42.7 | ↑15+: 97% | ↓5-: 0% |  |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | MED | 13.0 | 7.7-18.6 | ↑15+: 45% | ↓5-: 0% |  |
| Rashee Rice | WR | LOW | 29.4 | 9.8-25.2 | ↑15+: 81% | ↓5-: 0% |  |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 11.0 | 1.9-15.2 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 33% |  |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.7-17.7 | ↑15+: 13% | ↓5-: 22% |  |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 9.0 | 6.8-15.5 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 8% |  |
Bench
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 25.8 | 8.9-27.2 | ↑15+: 59% | ↓5-: 0% |  |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 0.0 | 4.1-27.0 | ↑15+: 41% | ↓5-: 16% |  |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | HIGH | 1.4 | 1.0-24.4 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 50% |  |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 14.0 | 0.0-21.0 | ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 21% |  |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 26.9 | 1.1-21.4 | ↑15+: 50% | ↓5-: 39% |  |
| Keenan Allen | WR | HIGH | 10.0 | 5.9-21.6 | ↑15+: 49% | ↓5-: 4% |  |
| Evan Engram | TE | HIGH | 7.5 | 2.9-13.3 | ↑15+: 1% | ↓5-: 31% |  |
Opponent
Starters
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | HIGH | 13.2 | 0.0-23.1 | ↑15+: 50% | ↓5-: 28% |  |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | MED | 28.6 | 10.7-53.2 | ↑15+: 76% | ↓5-: 0% |  |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | HIGH | 14.5 | 3.4-32.0 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 28% |  |
| Devin Neal | RB | HIGH | 4.8 | 0.6-10.8 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 52% |  |
| Rome Odunze | WR | HIGH | 13.2 | 2.8-22.8 | ↑15+: 50% | ↓5-: 26% |  |
| Michael Wilson | WR | HIGH | 14.9 | 3.3-24.1 | ↑15+: 50% | ↓5-: 22% |  |
| Trey McBride | TE | MED | 19.4 | 11.5-28.5 | ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 0% |  |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 7.0 | 0.3-13.3 | ↑15+: 1% | ↓5-: 35% |  |
| Harrison Butker | K | MED | 9.3 | 4.7-13.9 | ↑15+: 8% | ↓5-: 14% |  |
Bench
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | QB | HIGH | 6.0 | 0.5-12.8 | ↑15+: 1% | ↓5-: 47% |  |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | HIGH | 10.4 | 3.1-19.0 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 35% |  |
| DK Metcalf | WR | MED | 12.5 | 4.8-22.4 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 10% |  |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | HIGH | 12.2 | 0.0-24.3 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 20% |  |
| Jordan Addison | WR | HIGH | 11.1 | 0.0-21.0 | ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 13% |  |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | HIGH | 11.0 | 2.8-28.1 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 24% |  |
| Mason Taylor | TE | HIGH | 8.9 | 2.0-16.2 | ↑15+: 13% | ↓5-: 36% |  |
Scenario Details
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 21% @ 25.5 | 21% @ 18.1 | 42% @ 14.2 | 15.3 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 21% @ 42.7 | 74% @ 26.2 | 5% @ 15.0 | 29.1 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 10% @ 31.3 | 40% @ 16.1 | 50% @ 9.6 | 14.3 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 60% @ 24.3 | 20% @ 18.6 | 20% @ 9.8 | 20.2 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 10% @ 14.6 | 64% @ 6.8 | 26% @ 1.2 | 6.1 |
| Jason Myers | K | 46% @ 14.4 | 45% @ 8.8 | 9% @ 4.0 | 10.9 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 10% @ 16.3 | 51% @ 10.7 | 39% @ 3.1 | 8.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 22% @ 27.3 | 67% @ 22.1 | 10% @ 0.2 | 21.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 10% @ 19.0 | 81% @ 8.3 | 9% @ -1.9 | 8.5 |
Waiver Wire Notes
No urgent waiver moves needed. Current roster projects well. Consider streaming options if MHJ is ultimately ruled out pre-game.
Injury Concerns
- Bucky Irving (QUESTIONABLE - EXPECTED TO PLAY): First game back since Week 4 (shoulder subluxation). Schefter: Expected to play but Bucs won't overdo it. 13-15 touches expected. Tucker/White vulture risk.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (QUESTIONABLE - EXPECTED TO PLAY): First game back from appendicitis surgery Nov 10. Limited practice all week. Solid chance to play per ESPN. Rust factor - on bench.
- Omarion Hampton (OUT (IR)): Ruled OUT for Week 13 (ankle). 0.0 points expected.
- Baker Mayfield (QUESTIONABLE - EXPECTED TO PLAY): TB QB dealing with shoulder injury. Line dropped from -6.5 to -3. Affects Irving/TB game script.
ESPN Projection Accuracy
XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration
LLM vs ESPN Comparison
Data Quality & Discrepancies
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
Week 13 Discrepancy Log
No discrepancies detected this week.