Valued Customers
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | ✓ 29.4 | 18.1 | 18.4 | +11.0 |
| Emanuel Wilson (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 1.4 | 5.6 | 8.9 | -7.5 |
| Jameson Williams (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 26.9 | 11.8 | 15.1 | +11.8 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | ✓ 25.8 | 15.7 | 18.2 | +7.6 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 17.2 | 20.5 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 11.8 | 12.0 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | RB | 9.9 | 8.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 21.9 | 24.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 8.7 | 11.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | RB/WR/TE | 13.2 | 13.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.5 | 9.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 7.5 | 10.0 |
| Evan Engram (bench) | TE | BE | 8.1 | 7.5 |
| Keenan Allen (bench) | WR | BE | 12.0 | 10.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 13.7 | 14.0 |
| Omarion Hampton (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | RB | ✓ 11.6 | 20.9 | -9.3 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | WR | ✓ 2.8 | 13.5 | -10.7 |
| Harrison Butker | K | K | ✓ 4.0 | 8.7 | -4.7 |
| Kareem Hunt (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 9.0 | 9.3 | -0.3 |
| Romeo Doubs (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 12.0 | 11.0 | +1.0 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB | 15.5 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | RB | 15.2 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | WR | 11.5 |
| Trey McBride | TE | TE | 17.3 |
| Devin Neal | RB | RB/WR/TE | 11.1 |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 7.2 |
| DK Metcalf (bench) | WR | BE | 13.3 |
| Jordan Addison (bench) | WR | BE | 8.6 |
| Mason Taylor (bench) | TE | BE | 8.5 |
| Quentin Johnston (bench) | WR | BE | 10.0 |
| Shedeur Sanders (bench) | QB | BE | 11.8 |
Week 13 must-win matchup sees us leading 29.4 to 18.4 after Rashee Rice's dominant Friday performance. While Thursday's bench booms from Jordan Love (25.8) and Jameson Williams (26.9) sting, Sunday presents excellent opportunities with JSN as consensus WR1 against vulnerable Minnesota, Jacoby Brissett facing a porous Tampa Bay pass defense, and the Rams D/ST primed for double-digit points against woeful Carolina. Key injury concerns: Bucky Irving (first game back since Week 4, limited workload expected) and MHJ (first game after appendicitis surgery). With our 6-6 record, this is a must-win for playoff positioning.
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| RB | Bucky Irving | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | BUST | LOW |
| RB | Tyjae Spears | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| WR | Rashee Rice | LV | 18.1 | 18.4 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB/WR/TE | Tetairoa McMillan | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| K | Jason Myers | MIN | 8.5 | 9.0 | MODERATE | LOW |
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | CAR | 7.5 | 10.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love - Love already played Thursday (25.8 pts on bench). Brissett has favorable TB matchup, 18+ pts all 6 starts.
RB1: Start Bucky Irving over Emanuel Wilson - Irving has higher ceiling despite injury risk. Wilson already played (1.4 pts bench).
RB2: Start Tyjae Spears over Omarion Hampton - Spears has receiving floor (3+ catches in 5 straight). Hampton on IR.
WR1: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over All - WR1 ECR, 7-game 20+ streak, MIN 28th vs WR. Must start.
WR2: Start Rashee Rice over All - Already played Friday - 29.4 points. Game completed.
FLEX: Start Tetairoa McMillan over Marvin Harrison Jr. - MHJ QUESTIONABLE first game back from surgery. McMillan clear CAR #1, safer floor.
TE: Start Juwan Johnson over Evan Engram - Johnson TE6-11 ECR, MIA 4th most to TE, Kamara OUT. Engram low floor with DEN.
D/ST: Start Rams D/ST over None - #1 D/ST last week, #5 ECR, face weak CAR. Double-digit potential.
| Player | Pos | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 50.0% | 36.0% | 14.0% | MEDIUM |
| Jordan Love | QB | 28.4% | 50.7% | 20.9% | MEDIUM |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 25.7% | 56.1% | 18.2% | MEDIUM |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 25.3% | 50.4% | 24.3% | MEDIUM |
| Evan Engram | TE | 24.6% | 49.7% | 25.6% | MEDIUM |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 21.3% | 60.6% | 18.1% | MEDIUM |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 21.1% | 58.8% | 20.1% | MEDIUM |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 21.0% | 53.9% | 25.0% | MEDIUM |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 19.5% | 37.1% | 43.3% | MEDIUM |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 18.3% | 48.9% | 32.7% | MEDIUM |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 13.3% | 53.7% | 33.0% | MEDIUM |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 13.2% | 59.8% | 26.9% | MEDIUM |
| Jason Myers | K | 12.1% | 46.1% | 41.8% | MEDIUM |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | 10.7% | 55.1% | 34.2% | MEDIUM |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 9.5% | 36.0% | 54.5% | MEDIUM |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 8.3% | 37.3% | 54.4% | MEDIUM |
Projections: ESPN 15.7 | LLM 18.2 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
[Source: Pro Football Network]
Context: O/U: 45.0 | Def Rank: 16
XGBoost: Boom 28% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 20.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: QB6-10 ECR, 18+ pts all 6 starts, TB 27th pass D (243.5 yds allowed). MHJ expected back spreads coverage.
Context: O/U: 45.5 | Def Rank: 27
XGBoost: Boom 20% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 12.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: XGB: 10% boom, 55% bust - agrees with BUST. First game since Week 4 (shoulder subluxation). Coach: won't overdo it, 13-15 touches. 12.0 within BUST range.
[Source: Pro Football Network]
Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 17
XGBoost: Boom 10% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: RB36 ECR, out-touched by Pollard 15-7 last week. JAX 7th-fewest rushing yds allowed since Week 8. PPR floor from 3+ catches.
[Source: Pro Football Network]
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 7
XGBoost: Boom 13% | Bust 33% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: ON IR - not playing
Context: O/U: 41.0 | Def Rank: 16
XGBoost: Boom 8% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 5.6 | LLM 8.9 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
Context: O/U: 45.0 | Def Rank: 16
XGBoost: Boom 11% | Bust 34% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 21.9 | LLM 24.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: XGB: 50% boom, 14% bust - MEDIUM confidence. LLM selects MODERATE despite high boom prob: conservative estimate within MODERATE [18-28] given regression-to-mean likelihood. WR1 ECR, 7-game 20+ streak, MIN 28th vs WR.
[Source: Pro Football Network]
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 28
XGBoost: Boom 50% | Bust 14% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: WR13 ECR, clear CAR #1 (24.5% target share). Career game last week (130yds/2TD). LAR stout pass D (only 3 WR TDs since Week 5).
[Source: Pro Football Network]
Context: O/U: 46.5 | Def Rank: 12
XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: EXPECTED TO PLAY per ESPN after appendicitis surgery Nov 10. Limited practice all week. Rust concern but TB 18th vs WR.
[Source: Arizona Cardinals Official]
Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 18
XGBoost: Boom 26% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 18.1 | LLM 18.4 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
Context: O/U: 45.0 | Def Rank: 16
XGBoost: Boom 13% | Bust 27% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 15.1 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
Context: O/U: 45.0 | Def Rank: 16
XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 12.0 | LLM 10.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: WR40 ECR, 10.8 PPR or less in 4 of last 5. LV zone-heavy helps his skillset. Bench behind JSN/McMillan.
Context: O/U: 41.0 | Def Rank: 18
XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 7.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: TE21 ECR, only 3.2 catches/game with DEN. WSH 24th vs TE provides favorable matchup but low floor.
Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 24
XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: TE6-11 ECR, MIA 5th most pts allowed to TE, Kamara OUT boosts targets. TE1 in 3 Shough starts (TE12, TE3, TE9).
[Source: Pro Football Network]
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 5
XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 25% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 15.7 | LLM 18.2
XGBoost: Boom 28% | Bust 21%
Notes: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
[Source: Pro Football Network]
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 7.5
XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 26%
Notes: TE21 ECR, only 3.2 catches/game with DEN. WSH 24th vs TE provides favorable matchup but low floor.
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM 14.0
XGBoost: Boom 26% | Bust 18%
Notes: EXPECTED TO PLAY per ESPN after appendicitis surgery Nov 10. Limited practice all week. Rust concern but TB 18th vs WR.
[Source: Arizona Cardinals Official]
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
XGBoost: Boom 8% | Bust 54%
Notes: ON IR - not playing
Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 15.1
XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 20%
Notes: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
Projections: ESPN 5.6 | LLM 8.9
XGBoost: Boom 11% | Bust 34%
Notes: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
Projections: ESPN 12.0 | LLM 10.0
XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 24%
Notes: WR40 ECR, 10.8 PPR or less in 4 of last 5. LV zone-heavy helps his skillset. Bench behind JSN/McMillan.
Win Probability
Floor: -31.7 pts | Median: +9.4 pts | Ceiling: +49.4 pts
When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)
| Position | Injured Starter | Status | ESPN Proj | Replacement | Repl ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Baker Mayfield | QUESTIONABLE | 16.7 | Shedeur Sanders | 5.9 |
Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.
| Scenario | Probability | Opp Total EV | Win Prob | Expected Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All injured starters play | 85.0% | 124.7 | 62.1% | +9.4 |
| All injured starters out | 15.0% | 117.6 | 71.1% | +16.3 |
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 20.5 | 17.4-27.4 | ↑15+: 90% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 12.0 | 0.0-25.5 | ↑15+: 50% | ↓5-: 16% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 0.7-12.4 | ↑15+: 3% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | LOW | 24.0 | 20.7-42.7 | ↑15+: 97% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | MED | 13.0 | 7.7-18.6 | ↑15+: 45% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | LOW | 29.4 | 9.8-25.2 | ↑15+: 81% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 11.0 | 1.9-15.2 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 33% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.7-17.7 | ↑15+: 13% | ↓5-: 22% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 9.0 | 6.8-15.5 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 8% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 25.8 | 8.9-27.2 | ↑15+: 59% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 0.0 | 4.1-27.0 | ↑15+: 41% | ↓5-: 16% | |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | HIGH | 1.4 | 1.0-24.4 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 50% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 14.0 | 0.0-21.0 | ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 21% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 26.9 | 1.1-21.4 | ↑15+: 50% | ↓5-: 39% | |
| Keenan Allen | WR | HIGH | 10.0 | 5.9-21.6 | ↑15+: 49% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | HIGH | 7.5 | 2.9-13.3 | ↑15+: 1% | ↓5-: 31% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | HIGH | 13.2 | 0.0-23.1 | ↑15+: 50% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | MED | 28.6 | 10.7-53.2 | ↑15+: 76% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | HIGH | 14.5 | 3.4-32.0 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Devin Neal | RB | HIGH | 4.8 | 0.6-10.8 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 52% | |
| Rome Odunze | WR | HIGH | 13.2 | 2.8-22.8 | ↑15+: 50% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Michael Wilson | WR | HIGH | 14.9 | 3.3-24.1 | ↑15+: 50% | ↓5-: 22% | |
| Trey McBride | TE | MED | 19.4 | 11.5-28.5 | ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 7.0 | 0.3-13.3 | ↑15+: 1% | ↓5-: 35% | |
| Harrison Butker | K | MED | 9.3 | 4.7-13.9 | ↑15+: 8% | ↓5-: 14% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | QB | HIGH | 6.0 | 0.5-12.8 | ↑15+: 1% | ↓5-: 47% | |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | HIGH | 10.4 | 3.1-19.0 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 35% | |
| DK Metcalf | WR | MED | 12.5 | 4.8-22.4 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | HIGH | 12.2 | 0.0-24.3 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Jordan Addison | WR | HIGH | 11.1 | 0.0-21.0 | ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 13% | |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | HIGH | 11.0 | 2.8-28.1 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 24% | |
| Mason Taylor | TE | HIGH | 8.9 | 2.0-16.2 | ↑15+: 13% | ↓5-: 36% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 21% @ 25.5 | 21% @ 18.1 | 42% @ 14.2 | 15.3 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 21% @ 42.7 | 74% @ 26.2 | 5% @ 15.0 | 29.1 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 10% @ 31.3 | 40% @ 16.1 | 50% @ 9.6 | 14.3 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 60% @ 24.3 | 20% @ 18.6 | 20% @ 9.8 | 20.2 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 10% @ 14.6 | 64% @ 6.8 | 26% @ 1.2 | 6.1 |
| Jason Myers | K | 46% @ 14.4 | 45% @ 8.8 | 9% @ 4.0 | 10.9 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 10% @ 16.3 | 51% @ 10.7 | 39% @ 3.1 | 8.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 22% @ 27.3 | 67% @ 22.1 | 10% @ 0.2 | 21.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 10% @ 19.0 | 81% @ 8.3 | 9% @ -1.9 | 8.5 |
No urgent waiver moves needed. Current roster projects well. Consider streaming options if MHJ is ultimately ruled out pre-game.
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
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